Objective

  • Survey definitions of AI, linking them with biology and academic tribes working on AI over past, present and future.
Seventy-five years of moving the goalposts — most of these names recur tonight

Acknowledgements

  • Leonardo Donando
  • Jonathan Florez Giraldo
  • Alex Kuznetsov
  • Delany Adom
  • Andrei Alain González Galeano
  • Pedro Domingos — for The Master Algorithm and the five tribes

With gratitude for their contributions.

Four Threads

  • Intelligence is Task Solving by learning

  • Minds run on prediction — animal, human, machine alike

  • “AI” is an Ambiguous Term — today, a marketing label for LLMs

  • Human intelligence is Sample Efficient Novel Task Solving — written first in our biology

  • Good prediction indicates learning

Outline

  • I Minds: consciousness & animals
  • II Human intelligence as machine learning
  • III “AI”: an ambiguous term
  • — coffee —
  • IV Generative AI & LLMs
  • V The five tribes
  • VI State of the art
  • VII What we want from AGI
  • VIII The future

I. Minds: Consciousness & Animals

Sentience vs. Sapience

  • Sentience — to feel, to experience (qualia)
  • Sapience — to judge, to act with wisdom
  • Today’s AI mimics sapience, shows no sentience
  • That asymmetry is the hard problem
Sapience — judgement → Sentience — feeling → Human Animal Today’s AI

Self-Awareness

  • Introspection — the self as distinct from the world
  • A thinker and a sculpted head: a mind watching itself think
  • Not the same as intelligence, nor consciousness
  • Perhaps a prerequisite for both

A person seated at a desk behind an openwork bronze sculpture of a head.

A mind watching itself think — and three meeting themselves: bear, infant, child pass the mirror test

A Ladder of Agency

  1. Thermostat / bacterium — reactive feedback
  2. Dog — bonding, mapping, goals
  3. Octopus — distributed cognition, tool use
  4. Dolphin — self-recognition, communication
  5. Human — metacognition, culture

Primate: Our Closest Relative

  • Shared ancestry — chimps, bonobos ~6–7 Mya
  • Primate cognition: a rough draft of ours
  • The differences are as instructive as the likenesses

Bonobo

Octopus: Intelligence Reinvented

  • Last common ancestor ~550 Mya
  • Evolved completely independently of ours
  • A true natural experiment in cognition
  • Similar solutions → convergence is real

~500M neurons brain ~2/3 of neurons live in the arms

Messi: Football Intelligence

  • Growth-hormone deficiency as a child — physical limits may have driven compensatory perception
  • Reads play patterns before they unfold — anticipation over speed
  • Like chess intuition: pattern recognition, not raw calculation
  • A human specialization of the same predictive engine
  • Caveat: the hormone–cognition link is a popular theory, not proven

Getafe, 2007 — the pattern, read early

Emotion → Feeling → Sentiment

  • Emotion — raw input; a valence signal: good or bad, now?
  • Feeling — the conscious experience of that input
  • Sentiment — a compressed label from expressed feelings
  • Machine analogues: reward signals, then sentiment analysis

Friston: Prediction Under Uncertainty

  • The brain predicts the world, not just records it
  • Free Energy Principle: minimize surprise
  • Consciousness as ongoing active inference

prior likelihood × sense data posterior becomes the next prior · t → t+1 belief sharpens as evidence accumulates

\[\underset{\color{#f0a868}{\textbf{posterior}}}{\color{#f0a868}{P(\text{world} \mid \text{sense})}} \;\;\propto\;\; \underset{\color{#63b3a6}{\textbf{likelihood}}}{\color{#63b3a6}{P(\text{sense} \mid \text{world})}} \;\;\cdot\;\; \underset{\color{#7aa0e0}{\textbf{prior}}}{\color{#7aa0e0}{P(\text{world})}}\]

II. Human Intelligence as Machine Learning

Why Intelligence Evolved

  • An unstable niche — the world kept moving
  • Two bets: brittle instinct or costly inference
  • We paid to learn within a lifetime
  • Tools are the evidence of that inference
  • Three capacities: world-modelling, transmission, practice

World map with coloured arrows tracing early human dispersal out of Africa across Eurasia, Australia and the Americas, labelled in thousands of years ago.

A teardrop-shaped Acheulean flint handaxe, knapped on both faces.

Out of Africa into everything — and the handaxe that went with us, barely changed for 300,000 years

Human Intelligence Properties

  • Short-Term and Long-Term Memory
  • Sample Efficiency — learn from a few examples
  • Generalization & Transfer
  • Compositionality & Abstraction
  • Causal Reasoning, Metacognition, Grounding

Supervised Learning

  • Map inputs → labeled outputs
  • Told the answer; adjust to cut error
  • Bottleneck: the cost of labels
  • Human parallel: a student with an answer key
input x model ŷ label y error adjust the answer key supervises

Self-Supervised Learning

  • Data supplies its own labels — predict the masked word
  • The engine behind foundation models
  • The internet becomes supervision, unannotated
  • Human parallel: an infant learning by observation
the cat sat on the ? hide a token model “mat” it is the label

Unsupervised Learning

  • No labels — find structure in the data itself
  • Clustering, dimensionality reduction, density estimation
  • Reveals hidden groupings and manifolds
  • Human parallel: noticing categories no one named
clusters emerge — no labels given

Reinforcement Learning

  • Learn from reward and consequence
  • Powers game-players and chat-model tuning
  • The agent generates its own training signal
  • Human parallel: a child learning by trial, reward, and consequence
Agent Environment action state + reward

Unifying View

  • Self-supervised prediction builds the world model
  • Reinforcement fine-tunes on top
  • The same recipe in human brain and in models

III. “AI”: An Ambiguous Term

Beginning: Dartmouth, 1956

  • McCarthy chose “artificial intelligence”
  • The conjecture: intelligence can be “so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it”
  • They thought a summer and 10 assistants would do it.
McCarthy
Minsky
Shannon
with Nathaniel Rochester — the four
who signed the 1955 proposal

Four Acronyms

  • ML — algorithms that improve at a task with more data
  • ANI — narrow: superhuman at one task, useless outside it
  • AGI — general: human-level breadth, novel tasks included
  • ASI — beyond: exceeds the best humans at essentially everything

ANI is here · AGI is the aspiration · ASI is the artwork

Make Coffee

  • Functionalist test: a machine does what a human did — intelligent?
  • Once we see the mechanism, we stop calling it AI
  • Chess, OCR, translation — “AI” until it worked
  • Make coffee in any kitchen in the world
  • “AI” often means: not yet understood

Coffee, yes — but in a rig built for it, not any kitchen

Turing Test

  • Imitation: indistinguishable in text → passes
  • Says nothing about internal states
  • Cited often, engineered against rarely
  • A floor, not a ceiling

Russell & Norvig: Agents

  • Act to achieve the best expected outcome
  • The textbook definition — agent, environment, measure
  • Says nothing about how — only that it decides well
Agent Environment action percepts utility / performance measure what it maximizes

Chollet: Intelligence as Adaptation

  • Efficiency at acquiring new skills
  • Adaptation, not static performance
  • The machine echo of human skill acquisition
  • Memorize well, adapt poorly → not intelligent

One Definition of Knowledge

  • Data — raw, uncompressed
  • Compression — redundancy found
  • Abstraction — the reusable structure it yields
  • Prediction — the test on unseen data
  • Knowledge — abstraction that keeps passing

Process data to generate knowledge

Knowledge as Compression

Three traditional sources of knowledge:

  • Genes — survival encoded by evolution
  • Experience — direct interaction
  • Culture — collective wisdom, transmitted

A fourth new source, over the last 50 years:

  • Computers — synthesis at scale

☕ Coffee Break

15 minutes — please join us in the foyer

IV. Generative AI & LLMs

What Gen AI Is

  • Simulation from a partially learned distribution; produces new samples
  • Text, image, audio, code
  • Self-supervised pre-training + the transformer
  • Planetary scale recursive classification simulation
Noise → sample: a diffusion model inventing characters

What Gen AI Is Not

  • No guarantee of truth, cause, or grounding
  • Fluency is not knowledge
  • It compresses culture and lets us query it
  • New and powerful — not a mind

The LLM

  • A next-token predictor over human text
  • No persistent memory, weak causal models
  • Unreliable deliberate reasoning
  • A statistical reflection of us
Attention, layer by layer — every token weighing every other

V. The Five Tribes

Symbolists — Logic and Deduction

  • Roots: logic — Newell & Simon’s symbol system hypothesis
  • Learning = inverse deduction; rules, trees, expert systems
  • Precise and auditable — but brittle
  • Optimization: combinatorial search over rule/hypothesis space
  • Modern echo: neuro-symbolic AI, formal verification
  • EXAMPLE: Routing Email Complaints

Every answer comes with its own audit trail

Josh Tenenbaum

Connectionists — Brain Inspired

  • Roots: McCulloch–Pitts (1943), Rosenblatt’s perceptron (1958)
  • Backpropagation (1986) → CNNs → transformers
  • Optimization: stochastic gradient descent via backpropagation
  • Scales with data and compute — and dominates today
  • EXAMPLE: Making DNA viral capsids

Dendrites in, axon out — the unit they copied
Hinton
LeCun
Bengio
Schmidhuber

Connectionists: Bolivarian Contribution

  • Two inspiring contributors from the Bolivarian nations!

Evolutionaries — Selection Algorithm

  • Roots: Darwin, formalized by Holland (1975)
  • Evolve a population — mutation, crossover, selection
  • No gradient, no labels — only a fitness score
  • Optimization: genetic algorithms / evolutionary search
  • Niche but creative: architecture search, robot morphology
  • EXAMPLE: Avoiding immune response for gene envelope
John H. Holland
An evolved gait — most of the population falls over
Simulated annealing — escaping local optima

Bayesians — Belief as Probability

  • Roots: Bayes (1763), Laplace
  • Learning = updating a distribution over hypotheses
  • Prior + likelihood → posterior
  • Optimization: probabilistic inference (MCMC, variational inference)
  • Calibrated uncertainty, at a computational cost
  • EXAMPLE: Soldier Death Benefit Pensions

\[\underset{\color{#f0a868}{\text{posterior}}}{\color{#f0a868}{P(H \mid D)}} \;=\; \frac{\underset{\color{#63b3a6}{\text{likelihood}}}{\color{#63b3a6}{P(D \mid H)}}\;\cdot\;\underset{\color{#7aa0e0}{\text{prior}}}{\color{#7aa0e0}{P(H)}}}{\underset{\color{#9aa0aa}{\text{evidence}}}{\color{#9aa0aa}{P(D)}}}\]

\[\underset{\color{#e06c75}{\text{predictive}}}{\color{#e06c75}{P(x^{*} \mid D)}} \;=\; \int \color{#63b3a6}{P(x^{*} \mid H)}\; \color{#f0a868}{P(H \mid D)}\; dH \qquad \text{— average over every hypothesis, don't pick one}\]

Analogizers — Similarity

  • Roots: psychology — reasoning from prior cases
  • k-nearest neighbors, SVMs, the kernel trick
  • Optimization: constrained optimization to maximize margin (SVMs)
  • Legacy: recommendation, few-shot via embeddings
  • EXAMPLE: Locating outperforming stock pairs

Vladimir Vapnik — co-inventor of the SVM
The margin, widened until it cannot be

The Frontier Borrows From All Five

  • No production system is one tribe
  • LLMs: connectionist core, Bayesian uncertainty, symbolic tools, RL tuning
  • Domingos’ provocation: one master algorithm?
  • Which synthesis will your work advance?

VI. State of the Art

Brittle AI & the Reasoning Gap

  • Narrow, brittle outside the training distribution
  • The frontier problem is reasoning, not scale
  • Performance can mask absent understanding
  • The $1M ARC Prize still stands — no system has claimed it

System 1 vs. System 2

  • After Kahneman: fast intuition vs. slow reasoning
  • LLMs excel at System 1, stumble at System 2
  • “Reasoning” models narrow the gap at inference time
  • Open and fast-moving

Reality Gets a Vote

  • Knowledge is what survives a test
  • Code and maths moved fastest — they can be checked
  • Fluency with no verifier → hallucination
  • Essays, strategy, taste, most real tasks: no oracle

Mike Tyson standing over a floored opponent, captioned "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth."

Pearl’s Ladder

  • See — P(y | x)
  • Do — P(y | do(x))
  • Imagine — what if I had?
  • LLMs just see, no doing or imagining without a verifier!
  • Can’t watch your way to cause

The Experiment Is the Intervention

  • do(x) — reach in, set x by hand, cutting its usual causes
  • That severed graph is what an experiment is — randomise, don’t just watch
  • Verifying and causing are one move
  • To do experiments and find cause, you need a body

VII. What We Want from AGI

Generality, Efficiency, Reasoning

  • Generality — competence transfers to the untrained
  • Sample Efficiency — human-like, from few examples
  • Robust Reasoning — multi-step, causal, self-correcting

Memory, Grounding, Aligned Autonomy

  • Persistent Memory — no catastrophic forgetting
  • Grounded World Models — causal, ideally embodied
  • Autonomy + Alignment — open-ended yet controllable
  • The last is a constraint — and the highest-stakes one

VIII. The Future

Embodied AI & Moravec’s Paradox

  • Intelligence may require a body
  • Moravec: reasoning is cheap, sensorimotor skill is dear
  • Crossing a room is harder than grandmaster chess

Foundation Models Meet Robotics

  • Model “brains” in capable “bodies”
  • Surgery, deep-sea exploration, autonomous logistics
  • The loop closes: sense → predict → act → learn
  • Where the next decade concentrates

Unitree G1 — a body waiting for a better brain

AI Ethics — Beyond My Expertise

  • Cheap Dopamine — engineered attention capture
  • Economic Effects — labour, wealth concentration
  • Children — growing up AI-saturated
  • Distribution — who reaps the fruits of the technology
  • A prior, held lightly: fewer regulations tend to serve better

Key Takeaways

  • “AI” is an ambiguous term — today it means LLMs
  • Minds run on prediction — octopus to cortex to transformer
  • Human intelligence is the ML task list, written first in our biology
  • The open gaps — reasoning, memory, grounding, alignment — are the agenda

Closing Remarks

This PhD program is not about mastering today’s tools — it is about building the future.

You are the architects of the world models that will define the coming decade. The questions left open tonight — what consciousness is, how memory should persist, what closes the reasoning gap, what we should and should not want from AGI — are not gaps in this lecture.

They are your thesis directions.

Key References I

Foundations & cognition

  • Turing, A. (1950). Computing Machinery and Intelligence. Mind.
  • Russell, S. & Norvig, P. (2020). Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach (4th ed.)
  • Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow.
  • Friston, K. (2010). The free-energy principle: a unified brain theory? Nature Reviews Neuroscience.

Key References II

Symbolic & neural roots

  • Newell, A. & Simon, H. (1976). Computer science as empirical inquiry: symbols and search. CACM.
  • McCulloch, W. & Pitts, W. (1943). A logical calculus of ideas immanent in nervous activity.
  • Rosenblatt, F. (1958). The perceptron. Psychological Review.
  • Minsky, M. & Papert, S. (1969). Perceptrons.

Key References III

Learning at scale

  • Rumelhart, D., Hinton, G. & Williams, R. (1986). Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature.
  • Vaswani, A. et al. (2017). Attention Is All You Need. NeurIPS.
  • Hinton, G., Bengio, Y. & LeCun, Y. — 2018 ACM A.M. Turing Award, for deep neural networks
  • Dean, J. et al. (2012). Large scale distributed deep networks. NeurIPS.

Key References IV

Defining intelligence

  • Holland, J. (1975). Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems.
  • Sutton, R. (2019). The Bitter Lesson.
  • Chollet, F. (2019). On the measure of intelligence. arXiv:1911.01547.
  • Domingos, P. (2015). The Master Algorithm.
  • Moravec, H. (1988). Mind Children.

Image Credits

  • Bonobo — natataek, CC BY-SA 3.0
  • Octopus — Diego Delso, CC BY-SA 4.0
  • L. Messi goal clip (Getafe, 2007) — broadcast footage, rights holder unidentified
  • Mirror self-recognition (bear, infant, child animations) — via Medium
  • G. Hinton — Cmichel67, CC BY-SA 4.0
  • Y. LeCun — J. Barande, CC BY-SA 2.0
  • Y. Bengio — Xuthoria, CC BY-SA 4.0
  • J. Schmidhuber — ITU/R. Farrell, CC BY 2.0
  • D. Kahneman — nrkbeta, CC BY-SA 2.0
  • J. Pearl — Better Than Bacon, CC BY 2.0
  • J. McCarthy — null0, CC BY-SA 2.0
  • M. Minsky — OLPC, CC BY 3.0
  • C. Shannon — Tekniska museet, CC BY 2.0
  • F. Chollet — Ramosset, CC BY-SA 4.0
  • A. Turing — Elliott & Fry, public domain
  • T. Bayes — public domain (attribution disputed)
  • Soviet flag — public domain
  • Early human migrations map — Dbachmann, CC BY-SA 4.0
  • Acheulean handaxe (Saint-Acheul) — Didier Descouens, CC BY-SA 4.0
  • Simulated annealing — Kingpin13, CC0
  • Map boundaries — Natural Earth, public domain
  • J. Holland, V. Vapnik, J. Tenenbaum, K. Friston — no free licence identified; used under fair dealing for education
  • Portrait with sculpture — personal photograph, used with permission
  • Attention animation — BertViz, via comet.com
  • Diffusion denoising animation — via Towards Data Science
  • Decision tree animation — via Medium
  • Inside Out emotions clip — © Disney/Pixar, via Medium; used under fair dealing for education
  • Biological neuron animation — via Telefónica Tech
  • Evolved walker animation — via kottke.org
  • SVM margin animation — via Medium
  • ANI/AGI/ASI illustration — via Medium
  • AI history timeline — via LinkedIn
  • Unitree G1 robot animation — via roboticgizmos.com
  • Coffee-making robot animation — via Mothership
  • ARC-AGI task animation & ARC-AGI-3 leaderboard — © ARC Prize Foundation, via arcprize.org
  • M. Tyson quote poster — rights holder unidentified; used under fair dealing for education

Photographs from Wikimedia Commons unless noted. Titled slide image: Piedras del Tunjo.

Discussion

What is the most important open problem in AI — and how will you spend the next five years on it?