Past, Present & Future of AI
2026-08-03
With gratitude for their contributions.
Intelligence is Task Solving by learning
Minds run on prediction — animal, human, machine alike
“AI” is an Ambiguous Term — today, a marketing label for LLMs
Human intelligence is Sample Efficient Novel Task Solving — written first in our biology
Good prediction indicates learning
\[\underset{\color{#f0a868}{\textbf{posterior}}}{\color{#f0a868}{P(\text{world} \mid \text{sense})}} \;\;\propto\;\; \underset{\color{#63b3a6}{\textbf{likelihood}}}{\color{#63b3a6}{P(\text{sense} \mid \text{world})}} \;\;\cdot\;\; \underset{\color{#7aa0e0}{\textbf{prior}}}{\color{#7aa0e0}{P(\text{world})}}\]
Process data to generate knowledge
Three traditional sources of knowledge:
A fourth new source, over the last 50 years:
15 minutes — please join us in the foyer
\[\underset{\color{#f0a868}{\text{posterior}}}{\color{#f0a868}{P(H \mid D)}} \;=\; \frac{\underset{\color{#63b3a6}{\text{likelihood}}}{\color{#63b3a6}{P(D \mid H)}}\;\cdot\;\underset{\color{#7aa0e0}{\text{prior}}}{\color{#7aa0e0}{P(H)}}}{\underset{\color{#9aa0aa}{\text{evidence}}}{\color{#9aa0aa}{P(D)}}}\]
\[\underset{\color{#e06c75}{\text{predictive}}}{\color{#e06c75}{P(x^{*} \mid D)}} \;=\; \int \color{#63b3a6}{P(x^{*} \mid H)}\; \color{#f0a868}{P(H \mid D)}\; dH \qquad \text{— average over every hypothesis, don't pick one}\]
This PhD program is not about mastering today’s tools — it is about building the future.
You are the architects of the world models that will define the coming decade. The questions left open tonight — what consciousness is, how memory should persist, what closes the reasoning gap, what we should and should not want from AGI — are not gaps in this lecture.
They are your thesis directions.
Foundations & cognition
Symbolic & neural roots
Learning at scale
Defining intelligence
Photographs from Wikimedia Commons unless noted. Titled slide image: Piedras del Tunjo.
What is the most important open problem in AI — and how will you spend the next five years on it?